Speed Cameras – The Key to the Cash Cow

Consider this directly from Government Reports

When the following reports are combined some interesting facts come to light:

The equivalent of one fine for every four drivers was issued last year, suddenly there is to be a 13% increase in offences to less than one in three and it is assumed that all who offended the previous year will do it again! Have motorists suddenly become irrational?

The Auditor General’s report states that the total number of speeding fines issued for 04/05 was 928,811. This represents a rate of one fine for 26.5% of the licenced drivers in Victoria.

Statement of Budget 2005/06 anticipates an increase in police fine revenue over 04/05 of 31.2%, which will represent a rate of one fine for 39.5% of the licenced drivers.

VicRoads data shows that 85% of motorists (2,975,000 people) travel less than 5km/h above the limit in most speed zones, but 50% (1,750,000) travel above the limit.

The Key to the Cash Cow

The key to the cash cow can be found in the Auditor General's Report on the speed enforcement program.

The report contains a section titled “3. Effectiveness of the program” and a sub-section titled “3.2.1 Changes to free travel speeds”. Of particular interest is Figure 3a: 85th Percentile Free Travel Speeds In Melbourne 60, 70 And 80 Km/H Speed Zones and Figure 3b: 85th Percentile Free Travel Speeds On Country Roads.

This table details the findings of VicRoads on the average speed that 85% of the motorists (2,975,000 people) travel on the roads relative to speed limits in 60, 70, 80, 100 and 110km/h zones. In all cases it is slightly above the speed limit, and with the exception of 80km/h zones, all are above 3 km/h, but less than 5km/h over the limit.

Bingo! Tighten the tolerances to 3km/h and you can potentially fine 50% (1,750,000) motorists. If they are set above 5km/h, then you only have access to less than 15% of motorists to meet budget.

This is how it works

Take the 100km/h on Melbourne Freeways as an example. The average free travel speed is 98km/h and the 85% free travel percentile is 108km/h. This means that 50% travel at 98km/h or above the speed limit, 35% travel within 8km/h of the speed limit and 15% are 108+km/h.

Which one is more likely to make the speed camera contract viable, realise a fine rate of 25%-35% and meet budget?

Victorian Government 2005-2006 Statement of Finances - Budget Paper No. 4

In chapter 3 of the budget paper Statement of Budget 2005/06 on page 157 we find the following statement under the heading “Fines and regulatory fees” - “Fines revenue comprises revenue from traffic infringement notices, the operations of the Traffic Camera Office and payment of penalties imposed by the courts.”

Then on page 158 we find in "Table 3.5: Fines and regulatory fees" an entry under "Police fines a value listed at $324,200,000, up 31.2% from 2004/05.

Under the table is the explaination that "The increase between 2004-05 and 2005-06 largely reflects the net impact of lower than expected revenue from traffic infringements in 2004-05 arising from the identification of issues associated with the fixed road safety cameras, together with a progressive roll-out of these cameras during 2005-06 as part of the Government’s road safety initiative."

Clearly the increase is police fines is expected from traffic fines, as other finable community activity would be fairly static.

The fine for less than 10km/h is $134, and 10-24km/h is $215. Let’s assume that the average fine is $170. The increase of 32.1% or $77,000,000 over the previous year represents an additional 452,941 fines to be issued at $170 each.

According to VicRoads there are 3,500,000 licenced drivers on Victorian roads, therefore an additional 13% of drivers are going to offend, or the existing offenders are going to do more offending.

The Auditor General's Report on the speed enforcement program

According to the Auditor General’s report, 699,938 mobile speed camera fines were issued for speeding in 04/05, against 3,649,582 or 19.2% of registered vehicles. However according to the same report, only 1.6% of vehicles that passed a mobile camera was speeding. Odd?

The clear impression conveyed is that only 1.6% of drivers offend. This represents 58,393 of the registered vehicles or 12 fines per vehicle. Clearly not the case.

The Auditor General’s report states that the total number of speeding fines issued for 04/05 was 928,811. This represents a rate of one fine for 25.4% of the registered vehicles in Victoria.

The increase of an estimated 452,941 fines in 05/06 means that this will rise to a an estimated 1,381,752 fines or a rate of one fine for 38.7% of registered vehicles in Victoria, or one fine for 39.5% of the licenced drivers on the road.

Don't you think it a strange assumption regarding road safety?

The scale of the assumption of civil disobedience by drivers is staggering. The equivalent of one fine for every four drivers was issued last year, and suddenly there is to be a 13% increase in offences to one in three, in addition, all who offended the previous year will do it again!

Can 1,750,000 Victorians be wrong?

Isn’t the Government under our Constitution required “to govern for and on behalf of the people of Victoria” (Victorian Constitution Act 1975 - section 16A. The principle of Government mandate (1)(b))

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